Spatiotemporal pattern of leprosy in southwest China from 2010 to 2020: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Despite many efforts to control leprosy worldwide, it is still a significant public health problem in low- and middle-income regions. It has been endemic in China for thousands of years, and southwest China has the highest leprosy burden in the country. METHODS: This observational study was conducted with all newly detected leprosy cases in southwest China from 2010 to 2020. Data were extracted from the Leprosy Management Information System (LEPMIS) database in China. The Joinpoint model was used to determine the time trends in the study area. Spatial autocorrelation statistics was performed to understand spatial distribution of leprosy cases. Spatial scan statistics was applied to identify significant clusters with high rate. RESULTS: A total of 4801 newly detected leprosy cases were reported in southwest China over 11 years. The temporal trends declined stably. The new case detection rate (NCDR) dropped from 4.38/1,000,000 population in 2010 to 1.25/1,000,000 population in 2020, with an average decrease of 12.24% (95% CI: -14.0 to - 10.5; P < 0.001). Results of global spatial autocorrelation showed that leprosy cases presented clustering distribution in the study area. Most likely clusters were identified during the study period and were frequently located at Yunnan or the border areas between Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces. Secondary clusters were always located in the western counties, the border areas between Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Geographic regions characterized by clusters with high rates were considered as leprosy high-risk areas. The findings of this study could be used to design leprosy control measures and provide indications to strengthen the surveillance of high-risk areas. These areas should be prioritized in the allocation of resources.

Leprosy prevalence spatial distribution and trend in a health region in Northeast Brazil, 2008-2017: an ecological study.

MAIN RESULTS: A total of 4,029 leprosy cases were notified. Mean prevalence varied between 2.0 and 11.5 cases/10,000 inhab. Spatial distribution of the cases was heterogeneous and there was a falling prevalence trend over the years studied. IMPLICATIONS FOR SERVICES: These findings point to the need to strengthen active tracing strategies and expand health actions and services targeting leprosy, with the aim of increasing detection and early treatment of cases. PERSPECTIVES: It is important to carry out epidemiological investigations on the spatial distribution and prevalence of leprosy in other health regions in the state, in order to identify other areas with greater vulnerability to leprosy. OBJECTIVE: to analyse the spatial distribution and trend of leprosy in municipalities of a health region in a Northeast Brazilian state. METHODS: this was an ecological time-series study based on compulsory notification of leprosy cases by the municipalities covered by the Imperatriz-MA Regional Health Management Unit, between 2008 and 2017; prevalence and mean prevalence for the period were calculated; spatial analysis of the area was carried out and maps were generated using ArcGis 10.5. Prais-Winsten regression was used for trend analysis. RESULT: 4,029 cases of the disease were identified, and average prevalence ranged from 2.0 to 11.5 cases/10,000 inhabitants-year. The overall trend was downward. Governador Edson Lobão had the highest prevalence, 11.5 cases/10,000 inhabitants, and Lajeado Novo had the lowest prevalence, 2.0 cases/10,000 inhabitants. CONCLUSION: spatial distribution of leprosy cases was heterogeneous in the municipalities studied and prevalence had a falling trend.

Spatial analysis of the epidemiological risk of leprosy in the municipalities of Minas Gerais.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy remains a significant public health problem of high importance. This investigation aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the leprosy epidemiological risk in the municipalities of Minas Gerais. METHODS: This ecological study was conducted with new leprosy cases diagnosed from 2004 to 2019 in the municipalities of the state of Minas Gerais. Based on the epidemiological indicators, a composite indicator called the leprosy epidemiological risk index was estimated, classifying municipalities as high, medium, low and very low risk. For the spatial analysis, the global and local spatial autocorrelation statistics were used to identify the spatial distribution of the leprosy epidemiological risk in the periods 2004-2011 and 2012-2019 and classified as High/High, Low/Low, High/Low and Low /High. RESULTS: Although leprosy is declining in the state of Minas Gerais, the Global Moran Index confirmed the spatial dependence between municipalities for the two analyzed periods, characterizing the formation of clusters. When performing the local spatial autocorrelation, it was found that the macroregions with the highest number of municipalities with high indices, surrounded by other municipalities with high indices (high-high), were Northwest, East, South East, North, and Northeast. The low risk macroregions were Southeast, Center, South-Center and South. CONCLUSION: Leprosy has a heterogeneous spatial pattern and remains concentrated in historically endemic areas of the state. It underscores the importance of intensifying actions to combat leprosy in these municipalities and macroregions. Promote improved access to health services and combat stigma and prejudice to eliminate leprosy as a public health problem.

Temporal trend, high-risk spatial and spatiotemporal clustering of leprosy indicators in Brazil: A 20-year ecological and population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: Leprosy still represents a public health concern in Brazil. The country is the only one in America not to reach the global goal of leprosy disease control. Hence, this study aimed to assess the temporal, spatial and space-time patterns of leprosy cases in Brazil of the 20-year time series 2001-2020. METHODS: An ecological and population-based analysis was carried out, applying temporal and spatial techniques, and using the detection coefficient of sociodemographic and clinical-epidemiological variables of leprosy new cases in the 5570 municipalities of Brazil. Temporal trends were assessed using a segmented linear regression model. For spatial analysis, global and local Moran indexes were applied, and space-time scan statistics was used to identify risk clusters. RESULTS: The mean detection coefficient was 19.36/100,000 inhabitants, with a higher occurrence among men (21.29/100,000 inhabitants) and in the 60-69 age group (36.31/100,000). A decreasing temporal trend was observed in the country (annual percentage change: -5.20% per year). The North and Midwest regions were the most affected, exhibiting municipalities with a high/high standard, and with the highest annual percentage increase of multibacillary (MB) cases. Leprosy has a heterogeneous distribution throughout Brazil, but with high-risk spatiotemporal clusters, mainly located in the North and Midwest regions. CONCLUSION: Although Brazil has shown a decreasing temporal trend during the past 20 years, the country is still classified as highly endemic for leprosy, showing an increase in the proportion of new MB cases over the years.

Spatial patterns of new leprosy cases in a northeastern state of Brazil, 2011-2021.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the spatial patterns of leprosy in Pernambuco from 2011 to 2021. METHODS: This is an ecological epidemiological study, carried out with data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System, based on new cases of leprosy among inhabitants of Pernambuco, between 2011-2021. An empirical Bayesian analysis of local and spatial dependence was performed with the global and local Moran indices. RESULTS: 25,008 new cases of leprosy were registered with an annual case detection rate in the general population of 16.51 cases/100,000 inhabitants - which is considered high. Among those younger than 15 years of age, there were 5.16 cases/100,000 inhabitants (high) and 0.89/100,000 inhabitants with degree II of physical disability (low); there were also many high-risk cases with an overall Moran index of 0.33 (p<0.001), active transmission (0.26; p<0.001), and subsequent diagnosis of the disease (0.12; p<0.006), as well as distribution in macro-region 1 and macro-region 4. CONCLUSION: There was a heterogeneous spatial distribution in the state, showing two overviews, the first being the presence of municipalities with high risk of disease transmission and the second with clusters of silent municipalities, reinforcing the character of leprosy neglect as a major public health problem. This study brings reflections for leprosy control actions, due to the identification of priority areas to combat this disease in Pernambuco.

Perfil epidemiológico e distribuição espacial dos casos de hanseníase na Paraíba / Epidemiological profile and spatial distribution of leprosy cases in Paraíba

Resumo Introdução A hanseníase se apresenta de forma heterogênea, o que requer o reconhecimento do perfil e distribuição espacial para a efetivação de ações de controle. Objetivo Descrever o perfil epidemiológico e a distribuição espacial dos casos de hanseníase na Paraíba. Método Estudo ecológico, de base secundária e abordagem quantitativa. Os loci do estudo foram os 223 municípios do estado. Os dados foram coletados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação/Hanseníase correspondentes ao período de 2015 a 2019. Utilizou-se de estatística descritiva e análise espacial com auxílio do software R. Resultados Foram analisados 3.218 casos para o perfil epidemiológico e 3.212 para a análise espacial. Verificou-se maior registro no ano de 2019 (n=778;24,2%); no sexo masculino (n=1.783; 55,5%); faixa etária 40 a 59 anos (n=1.236; 38,4%); classificação multibacilar (n=2.095; 65,2%); forma dimorfa (n= 970; 30,2%), e grau de incapacidade física 0 (n=1.611; 50,2%). Identificaram-se 171 (76,7%) municípios que notificaram casos, e houve detecção de conglomerados simples e compostos envolvendo 31 municípios, situados mais ao Leste e Oeste do estado. Conclusão Ressalta-se que a hanseníase permanece com cadeia de transmissão ativa na Paraíba e com distribuição geográfica heterogênea, reafirmando a importância de planejar e executar ações de controle mais resolutivas.

Abstract Background Leprosy presents itself heterogeneously, which requires the recognition of profile and spatial distribution for the effectuation of control actions. Objective To describe the epidemiological profile and the spatial distribution of leprosy cases in the Paraíba, Brazil. Method Ecological study on a secondary basis with a quantitative approach. The study site was the 223 municipalities in the state of Paraíba. The data were collected in the Notifiable Diseases Information System/Leprosy for the period from 2015 to 2019. Descriptive statistics and spatial analysis were used with the aid of the R software. Results 3,218 cases were analyzed for the epidemiological profile and 3,212 for the spatial analysis. There was a greater record in the year of 2019 (n = 778;24.2%); in males (n = 1,783; 55.5%); age group 40 to 59 years (n = 1,236; 38.4%); multibacillary classification (n = 2,095; 65.2%); dysmorphic form (n = 970; 30.2%); and degree of physical disability 0 (n = 1,611; 50.2%). 171 (76.7%) municipalities that reported cases were identified, and simple and compound conglomerates were detected involving 31 municipalities located further east and west of the state. Conclusion It should be noted that leprosy remains an active transmission chain in Paraíba and has a heterogeneous geographic distribution, reaffirming the importance of planning and executing more resolute control actions.

Distribuição espacial e tendência da prevalência da hanseníase em uma regional de saúde do Nordeste brasileiro, 2008-2017: um estudo ecológico / Leprosy prevalence spatial distribution and trend in a health region in Northeast Brazil, 2008-2017: an ecological study / Distribución espacial y tendencia en la prevalencia de la lepra en una región sanitaria del Nordeste de Brasil, 2008-2017: un estudio ecológico

Objetivo: analisar a distribuição espacial e a tendência da hanseníase em municípios de uma regional de saúde de um estado no Nordeste brasileiro. Métodos: estudo ecológico e de séries temporais, sobre a notificação compulsória dos municípios integrantes da Unidade Gestora Regional de Saúde de Imperatriz, Maranhão, Brasil, entre 2008 e 2017; foram determinadas as prevalências e a média para o período; realizou-se a análise espacial de área e os mapas foram gerados pelo aplicativo ArcGis 10.5; na análise de tendência, utilizou-se a regressão de Prais-Winsten. Resultado: foram identificados 4.029 casos da doença e as médias de prevalência variaram de 2,0 a 11,5 casos/10 mil habitantes/ano, com tendência descendente; Governador Edson Lobão apresentou a maior prevalência, 11,5 casos/10 mil hab., e Lajeado Novo a menor, 2,0 casos/10 mil hab. Conclusão: a distribuição espacial dos casos de hanseníase foi heterogênea nos municípios estudados e a tendência da prevalência, decrescente.

Objective: to analyse the spatial distribution and trend of leprosy in municipalities of a health region in a Northeast Brazilian state. Methods: this was an ecological time-series study based on compulsory notification of leprosy cases by the municipalities covered by the Imperatriz-MA Regional Health Management Unit, between 2008 and 2017; prevalence and mean prevalence for the period were calculated; spatial analysis of the area was carried out and maps were generated using ArcGis 10.5. Prais-Winsten regression was used for trend analysis. Result: 4,029 cases of the disease were identified, and average prevalence ranged from 2.0 to 11.5 cases/10,000 inhabitants-year. The overall trend was downward. Governador Edson Lobão had the highest prevalence, 11.5 cases/10,000 inhabitants, and Lajeado Novo had the lowest prevalence, 2.0 cases/10,000 inhabitants. Conclusion: spatial distribution of leprosy cases was heterogeneous in the municipalities studied and prevalence had a falling trend.

Objetivo: analisar la distribución espacial y la tendencia de la lepra en una región sanitaria de un estado del Nordeste brasileño. Métodos: estudio ecológico y de serie temporal, con notificación obligatoria de los municipios de la Unidad de Gestión Regional de Salud de Imperatriz-MA, entre 2008-2017. Se determinaron la prevalencia y la media del período y se realizó un análisis del espacio de área, los mapas se generaron en ArcGis 10.5. Para el análisis de tendencia se utilizaron regresiones de Prais-Winsten. Resultado: se identificaron 4.029 casos y las prevalencias promedio oscilaron entre 2,0 y 11,5 casos/10.000 habitantes-año, con tendencia al descenso. Governador Edson Lobão presentó la mayor prevalencia 11,5 casos/10.000 habitantes y Lajeado Novo la menor prevalencia 2,0 casos/10.000 habitantes. Conclusión: la distribución espacial de los casos de lepra fue heterogénea en los municipios y la tendencia de prevalencia decreciente.

Temporal trend, distribution and spatial autocorrelation of leprosy in Brazil: ecological study, 2011 to 2021.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the temporal trend and spatial behavior of leprosy in Brazil, from 2011 to 2021. METHODS: This is an ecological study, with data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System, obtained in June 2022. The annual detection rate of new leprosy cases per 100 thousand inhabitants was calculated. To estimate the trend of the 2011-2019 and 2011-2021 series, the polynomial regression model was used, testing first-, second-, and third-order polynomials. For spatiality, natural breaks were used and, later, the univariate global and local Moran's indexes. A significance level of 5% was adopted and the analyses were performed using SPSS®, GeoDa®, and QGIS® software. RESULTS: The findings indicated an upward trend in the incidence of leprosy in Brazilian regions and in 20 federative units between 2011 and 2019. However, there was a decrease in most of the country when considering the COVID-19 pandemic years. Spatiality showed that the highest detection rates throughout the period were observed in the North, Midwest, and Northeast regions, with high-risk clusters, and the lowest detection rates in the South and Southeast regions, with low-risk clusters. CONCLUSION: The leprosy detection rate showed an upward trend in Brazil between 2011 and 2019, with greater spatial concentration in the North, Northeast, and Midwest regions. Nevertheless, the study raises an alert for the programmatic sustainability of leprosy control in Brazil, considering the drop in the COVID-19 pandemic, presumably due to the influence of the reorganization of the development of initiatives and provision of services in face of COVID-19.

Identifying clusters of leprosy patients in India: A comparison of methods.

BACKGROUND: Preventive interventions with post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) are needed in leprosy high-endemic areas to interrupt the transmission of Mycobacterium leprae. Program managers intend to use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to target preventive interventions considering efficient use of public health resources. Statistical GIS analyses are commonly used to identify clusters of disease without accounting for the local context. Therefore, we propose a contextualized spatial approach that includes expert consultation to identify clusters and compare it with a standard statistical approach. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We included all leprosy patients registered from 2014 to 2020 at the Health Centers in Fatehpur and Chandauli districts, Uttar Pradesh State, India (n = 3,855). Our contextualized spatial approach included expert consultation determining criteria and definition for the identification of clusters using Density Based Spatial Clustering Algorithm with Noise, followed by creating cluster maps considering natural boundaries and the local context. We compared this approach with the commonly used Anselin Local Moran's I statistic to identify high-risk villages. In the contextualized approach, 374 clusters were identified in Chandauli and 512 in Fatehpur. In total, 75% and 57% of all cases were captured by the identified clusters in Chandauli and Fatehpur, respectively. If 100 individuals per case were targeted for PEP, 33% and 11% of the total cluster population would receive PEP, respectively. In the statistical approach, more clusters in Chandauli and fewer clusters in Fatehpur (508 and 193) and lower proportions of cases in clusters (66% and 43%) were identified, and lower proportions of population targeted for PEP was calculated compared to the contextualized approach (11% and 11%). CONCLUSION: A contextualized spatial approach could identify clusters in high-endemic districts more precisely than a standard statistical approach. Therefore, it can be a useful alternative to detect preventive intervention targets in high-endemic areas.

Risk areas for the occurrence of leprosy in border countries of South America - Brazil and Argentina.

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to analyze the spatial association and relative risk (RR) of leprosy cases diagnosed in southern Brazil and in the Argentinean province of Misiones during 2010 to 2016. METHODS: This ecological-type epidemiological study analyzed data from the Health Ministries of both countries. The analysis included frequency measures, spatial autocorrelation, RR cluster analysis and map construction. RESULTS: A hyperendemic occurrence was identified in all study regions, in the state of Paraná 71.2% of the municipalities were hyperendemic and in Misiones, Argentina 41.2%. The GI* statistical analysis showed clusters of high incidence rates in the state of Paraná and low-risk clusters in much of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, both in Brazil. The analysis indicated an area with RR equal to 3.87 - (p < .0001) when considering the entire territory and an RR of 2.80 - (p < .0001) excluding the state of Paraná, with the number of departments of Misiones, Argentina included in the risk clusters increasing significantly. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate a high probability of similar illness in adjacent areas, according to their relative position in space, as the occurrence of the disease is influenced by neighboring clusters.

Spatial distribution pattern of new leprosy cases under 15 years of age and their contacts in Sobral, Ceará, Brazil.

This study's objective was to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of new leprosy cases under 15 years and their contacts. A cross-sectional descriptive study covering sociodemographic characteristics and spatial analysis was carried out. The participants were from the city of Sobral, Ceará and the study was conducted between August 2014 and September 2015. Contacts were identified by the persons responsible for the children. Seropositivity was determined with the NDO-LID antigen, and positive cases were plotted on Voronoi polygons. Nine new cases of leprosy under 15 years of age have been found. The average number of people living with the cases was higher than the number of people living with non-household contacts. All household contacts were aware of other leprosy cases and had a higher rate of seropositive tests than non-household contacts. The index cases lived in the poorest regions of the municipality and hyper-endemic areas. Spatial analysis revealed a cluster of subclinical infection within a radius of 102 meters, suggesting that non-household transmission is related to proximity with seropositive individuals. In conclusion, the search for new leprosy cases cannot be restricted to household contacts.

Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of leprosy in a municipality with low endemicity in São Paulo state, Brazil. / Evolução temporal e distribuição espacial da hanseníase em município de baixa endemicidade no estado de São Paulo.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of leprosy in a scenario of low endemicity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Ecological study with leprosy cases in Ribeirão Preto, between 2006 to 2016. The temporal trend of leprosy detection was verified through the decomposition of time series and identified areas of high and low occurrence of the disease using the Getis-Ord Gi* technique. RESULTS: There were 890 cases, and the detection rate showed an increasing trend in the period from 2011 to 2015, with an average growth of 1% per month. Areas of high occurrence of the disease were identified in the northern region of the city (99% and 95% confidence). CONCLUSION: The temporal analysis showed that the rate of detection of leprosy presented an increasing trend, and the spatial analysis showed that the region of the municipality with the highest occurrence of the disease is characterized by presenting the greatest social inequalities.

Determining target populations for leprosy prophylactic interventions: a hotspot analysis in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy incidence remained at around 200,000 new cases globally for the last decade. Current strategies to reduce the number of new patients include early detection and providing post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) to at-risk populations. Because leprosy is distributed unevenly, it is crucial to identify high-risk clusters of leprosy cases for targeting interventions. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) methodology can be used to optimize leprosy control activities by identifying clustering of leprosy cases and determining optimal target populations for PEP. METHODS: The geolocations of leprosy cases registered from 2014 to 2018 in Pasuruan and Pamekasan (Indonesia) were collected and tested for spatial autocorrelation with the Moran's I statistic. We did a hotspot analysis using the Heatmap tool of QGIS to identify clusters of leprosy cases in both areas. Fifteen cluster settings were compared, varying the heatmap radius (i.e., 500 m, 1000 m, 1500 m, 2000 m, or 2500 m) and the density of clustering (low, moderate, and high). For each cluster setting, we calculated the number of cases in clusters, the size of the cluster (km2), and the total population targeted for PEP under various strategies. RESULTS: The distribution of cases was more focused in Pasuruan (Moran's I = 0.44) than in Pamekasan (0.27). The proportion of total cases within identified clusters increased with heatmap radius and ranged from 3% to almost 100% in both areas. The proportion of the population in clusters targeted for PEP decreased with heatmap radius from > 100% to 5% in high and from 88 to 3% in moderate and low density clusters. We have developed an example of a practical guideline to determine optimal cluster settings based on a given PEP strategy, distribution of cases, resources available, and proportion of population targeted for PEP. CONCLUSION: Policy and operational decisions related to leprosy control programs can be guided by a hotspot analysis which aid in identifying high-risk clusters and estimating the number of people targeted for prophylactic interventions.

Epidemiological characteristics of leprosy during the period 2005-2020: A retrospective study based on the Chinese surveillance system.

Background: Jiangsu Province is located in the Yangtze River Delta region, with a total area of 107,200 square kilometers. Since 1949, over 55,000 cases have been registered, with Taixing accounting for the highest number of patients. The proportion of new cases with MB and G2D was higher compared to other regions. As a result, Jiangsu has been considered a priority area for public health interventions in China. Methods: This paper mainly described the population, time, and spatial distribution of the newly detected leprosy cases in Jiangsu Province between 2005 and 2020. In this study, all the data were entered into Microsoft Excel and SPSS for the descriptive analysis. ArcGIS was applied to create statistical maps, and Geoda was used to conduct spatial autocorrelation analysis with local Moran's I statistics (LISA). The epidemiological data were obtained from LEPMIS. In addition, population data were obtained from the Statistical Yearbook of Jiangsu Province. Results: During the study period, 363 new cases were reported. Of these, 232 were men and 131 were women (1.77:1). The mean age at diagnosis was 60.56 years, and no adolescent cases were identified. Three hundred and twenty-seven (90.08%) were diagnosed with MB and 36 (9.92%) with PB. 31.68% (115/363) of the patients presented with G2D. Farmers accounted for 74.9%, and most cases were identified in skin clinics (248, 68.32%). We observed a decreasing trend in detection rate, with a higher concentration of new cases diagnosed between July and October. Spatial analysis showed that the new cases were primarily distributed in the northwest of Jiangsu province, and Suqian has the highest incidence of leprosy. Special attention should be paid to Wuzhong, a county with a potential risk of inter-provincial transmission. Furthermore, 55 new cases came from other Chinese provinces but lived in Jiangsu. Conclusion: The NCDR of leprosy decreased, but the new cases showed disabilities, a sign of the late diagnosis. The results indicated that some regions were still suffering from the burden of leprosy. Thus, we recommend that the government should adopt effective strategies to promote leprosy control. The main priorities for eliminating new cases were to provide sustainable financial support, improve the quality of clinical services, strengthen preventive intervention and rehabilitation services for disabilities, provide health education among high-risk populations, and explore new approaches.

Estudo epidemiológico da hanseníase em dois cenários brasileiros: abordagem espacial, temporal e dos determinantes sociais / Epidemiological study of leprosy in two Brazilian scenarios: spatial, temporal and social determinants approach

No ano de 2019, dos 23 países de prioridade global da hanseníase, a Índia, o Brasil e a Indonésia foram responsáveis por mais de 80% dos casos reportados da doença no mundo, com o Brasil ocupando a segunda posição no ranking dos países de maior carga da doença. A hanseníase apresenta distribuição espacial heterogênea, possuindo forte relação com as desigualdades sociais, em que as regiões com piores indicadores socioeconômicos são espaços de manutenção da doença. Assim, considerando esse contexto, buscou-se analisar a associação da hanseníase com determinantes sociais em Imperatriz/MA e Ribeirão Preto/SP. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico, realizado no período de 2006 a 2016 considerando os casos de hanseníase notificados nos dois municípios. Em relação aos determinantes sociais, foram exploradas as dimensões do Censo Demográfico referentes a Aglomeração, Alfabetização, Condições de ocupação do domicílio, Condições sanitárias, Renda do domicílio, Raça/Etnia e Idade. Em Imperatriz, identificou-se áreas de risco de hanseníase com aplicação da Estatística de Varredura, e em seguida, verificou-se a associação com determinantes sociais através da regressão logística binária. Em Ribeirão Preto, foram computados a quantidade de casos de hanseníase de acordo com setores censitários e a associação com determinantes sociais foi verificada através da aplicação de modelos aditivos generalizados para localização, escala de forma (generalized additive model for location, scale and shape - GAMLSS). Como resultados, em Imperatriz, a estatística de varredura identificou áreas de alto risco da doença (RR>1), e o modelo logístico evidenciou que as dimensões compostas pelos determinantes: sexo, escolaridade, alto número de moradores por domicílio e baixa renda foram associados a áreas de alto risco (OR = 1,25; IC 95% = 1,07-1,49; ROC = 0,65). Em Ribeirão Preto, os resultados do melhor modelo indicaram que homens e mulheres sem escolaridade e pessoas com renda de 1 a 2 salários mínimos estavam associados a um aumento relativo no número de casos de hanseníase (7,37% [p=0,0086], 7,10% [p=0,0057] e 2,44% [p=0,0268], respectivamente). Homens negros e mulheres pardas sem escolaridade tiveram associação com um aumento relativo do número de casos da doença (10,77% [p=0,0162] e 4,02% [p=0,0081], respectivamente). O estudo permitiu evidenciar a relação dos determinantes sociais ao risco de hanseníase em dois cenários distintos. Pessoas sem escolaridade e níveis reduzidos de renda foram associados à doença em ambos os cenários. Esses resultados reforçam que situações de vulnerabilidade são uma das principais responsáveis pela manutenção do quadro de endemicidade da hanseníase nesses cenários, e consequentemente, no Brasil

In 2019, of the 23 countries with global priority for leprosy, India, Brazil and Indonesia were responsible for more than 80% of the reported cases of the disease in the world, with Brazil occupying the second position in the ranking of countries with the highest burden of disease. Leprosy has a heterogeneous spatial distribution, presenting a strong relationship with social inequalities, in which regions with the worst socioeconomic indicators are areas for the maintenance of the disease. Thus, considering this context, we aimed to analyze the association of leprosy with social determinants in Imperatriz/MA and Ribeirão Preto/SP. This is an ecological study, carried out from 2006 to 2016, considering the cases of leprosy reported in the two municipalities. Regarding social determinants, the dimensions of the Demographic Census referring to Agglomeration, Literacy, Conditions of occupation of the household, Sanitary conditions, Income of the household, Race/Ethnic group and Age were explored. In Imperatriz, risk areas for leprosy were identified through the Scan Statistics, and then the association with social determinants was verified through binary logistic regression. In Ribeirão Preto, the number of leprosy cases was computed according to census tracts and the association with social determinants was verified by applying generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). As a result, in Imperatriz, the scanning statistic identified areas of high risk for the disease (RR>1), and the logistic model showed that the dimensions composed by the determinants: gender, education, high number of residents per household and low income were associated to high-risk areas (OR = 1.25; 95% CI = 1.07-1.49; ROC = 0.65). In Ribeirão Preto, the results of the best model indicated that men and women with no education and people with an income of 1 to 2 minimum wages were associated with a relative increase in the number of leprosy cases (7.37% [p=0.0086], 7.10% [p=0.0057] and 2.44% [p=0.0268], respectively). Black men and uneducated brown women were associated with a relative increase in the number of cases of the disease (10.77% [p=0.0162] and 4.02% [p=0.0081], respectively). The study made it possible to evidence the relationship of social determinants to the risk of leprosy in two different scenarios. People with no education and low-income levels were associated with illness in both scenarios. These results reinforce that situations of vulnerability are one of the main factors responsible for maintaining the endemicity of leprosy in these scenarios, and consequently, in Brazil

Evolução temporal e distribuição espacial da hanseníase em município de baixa endemicidade no estado de São Paulo / Evolución temporal y distribución espacial de la lepra en una ciudad de baja endemia en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil / Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of leprosy in a municipality with low endemicity in São Paulo state, Brazil

Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial e temporal da hanseníase em cenário de baixa endemicidade no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, sobre casos de hanseníase notificados no município de Ribeirão Preto, entre 2006 e 2016. A tendência temporal da taxa de detecção de hanseníase foi verificada mediante decomposição de séries temporais, e identificadas as áreas de alta e de baixa ocorrência da doença utilizando-se a técnica Getis-Ord Gi*. Resultados: Foram registrados 890 casos, e a taxa de detecção apresentou uma tendência crescente no período analisado, com crescimento médio de 1% ao mês. Identificaram-se áreas de alta ocorrência da doença na região norte do município (99% e 95% de confiança). Conclusão: A taxa de detecção de hanseníase apresentou tendência temporal crescente, e a análise espacial permitiu visualizar que a região do município com maior ocorrência da doença se caracteriza por apresentar as maiores desigualdades sociais.

Objetivo: Analizar la distribución espacial y temporal de la lepra en un escenario de baja endemicidad en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudio ecológico con casos de lepra en Ribeirão Preto, entre 2006 y 2016. La tendencia temporal de la detección de la lepra se verificó a través de la descomposición de series de tiempo e identificaron áreas de alta y baja ocurrencia utilizando la técnica Getis-Ord Gi*. Resultados: Fueron 890 casos y la tasa de detección mostró una tendencia creciente en el período de 2011 a 2015, con un crecimiento promedio de 1% mensual. Se identificaron áreas de alta ocurrencia de la enfermedad en la región norte de la ciudad (99% y 95% de confianza). Conclusión: El análisis temporal mostró que la tasa de detección de lepra presentó una tendencia creciente y el análisis espacial mostró que la región de la ciudad con mayor ocurrencia de la enfermedad se caracteriza por presentar las mayores desigualdades sociales.

Objective: To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of leprosy in a scenario of low endemicity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Ecological study with leprosy cases in Ribeirão Preto, between 2006 to 2016. The temporal trend of leprosy detection was verified through the decomposition of time series and identified areas of high and low occurrence of the disease using the Getis-Ord Gi* technique. Results: There were 890 cases, and the detection rate showed an increasing trend in the period from 2011 to 2015, with an average growth of 1% per month. Areas of high occurrence of the disease were identified in the northern region of the city (99% and 95% confidence). Conclusion: The temporal analysis showed that the rate of detection of leprosy presented an increasing trend, and the spatial analysis showed that the region of the municipality with the highest occurrence of the disease is characterized by presenting the greatest social inequalities.

Uso combinado de marcadores sorológicos e análise espacial na vigilância epidemiológica da hanseníase

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Avaliar o uso combinado de marcadores sorológicos e análise espacial para ampliar a sensibilidade da vigilância epidemiológica da hanseníase. Método. Este estudo transversal foi realizado com vizinhos de casos de hanseníase e familiares e vizinhos de escolares com sorologia positiva anti-glicolipídeo fenólico I (PGL-I) em Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brasil. Definiram- se como vizinhos as pessoas que residiam em um raio de até 100 metros de escolares e de casos de hanseníase. Para a coleta de dados, foram realizados entrevista semiestruturada, exame dermatoneurológico e teste sorológico rápido ML Flow. Todos os endereços foram georreferenciados. Foram realizadas regressão multivariada e análise espacial, tendo a sororreatividade anti-PGL-I como variável dependente. Resultados. Foram estudadas 1 491 pessoas: 1 009 (67,7%) familiares e vizinhos dos escolares com sorologia positiva e 482 (32,3%) vizinhos dos casos de hanseníase. Do total, 421 (28,2%) apresentaram soropositividade anti-PGL-I. A chance de soropositividade foi maior entre familiares e vizinhos dos escolares soropositivos (P < 0,001), entre pessoas com renda familiar de 1 salário-mínimo (P < 0,001), entre os mais jovens (P < 0,001) e entre os que residiam em domicílios com um a cinco cômodos (P = 0,007). A taxa de soropositividade foi maior em área geográfica correspondente aos escolares soropositivos (P < 0,001), ou seja, houve divergência entre o foco de maior concentração de casos e o de maior soropositividade. Conclusões. O uso combinado de marcadores sorológicos e análise espacial possibilitou identificar fragilidades operacionais dos serviços e uma possível endemia oculta de hanseníase nos setores censitários urbanos do município. Atividades de rastreamento de contatos sociais e vizinhos, busca ativa, campanhas educativas, inquéritos escolares e análise do território facilitam o diagnóstico precoce da hanseníase.

ABSTRACT Objective. To evaluate the combined use of serologic markers and spatial analysis to increase the sensitivity of leprosy epidemiological surveillance. Method. This cross-sectional study was performed with neighbors of leprosy cases and neighbors and family members of schoolchildren with a positive anti-phenolic glycolipid I (PGL-I) test in Diamantina, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Neighbors were those living within a 100-m radius of schoolchildren or leprosy cases. Data collection included a semi-structured interview, dermatologic examination, and rapid ML Flow test. All residential addresses were georeferenced. Multivariate regression and spatial analysis were performed with anti-PGL-I seropositivity as the dependent variable. Results. The study included 1 491 individuals: 1 009 (67.7%) family members and neighbors of schoolchildren with positive serology test and 482 (32.3%) neighbors of leprosy cases. Of the total, 421 (28.2%) were positive for anti-PGL-I. Seropositivity was higher among family members and neighbors of seropositive schoolers (P < 0.001), among people with family income of 1 minimum wage (P < 0.001), among the youngest participants (P < 0.001), and among those living in homes with one to five rooms (P = 0.007). The seropositivity rate was higher in the geographic area corresponding to seropositive schoolchildren (P < 0.001), that is, the spot with the highest number of cases was different from the spot with the highest rate of seropositivity. Conclusions. The combined use of serologic markers and spatial analysis allowed us to easily identify operational weaknesses of services and a possible occult leprosy endemism in the municipality’s urban census tracts. Tracing of social contact and neighbors, active search, educational campaigns, school surveys, and territorial analyses facilitate the early diagnosis of leprosy.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Evaluar el uso conjunto de los marcadores serológicos y del análisis espacial para ampliar la sensibilidad de la vigilancia epidemiológica de la lepra. Método. Este estudio transversal se realizó con vecinos de personas con casos de lepra y con familiares y vecinos de escolares con resultados positivos en las pruebas serológicas del antígeno glicolípido fenólico I (PGL-I) en Diamantina (Minas Gerais, Brasil). Se definieron como vecinos las personas residentes en un radio de hasta 100 metros de distancia de los escolares y de las personas con casos de lepra. Para la recopilación de datos se realizaron entrevistas semiestructuradas, exámenes dermatoneurológicos y pruebas serológicas rápidas ML Flow. Todas las direcciones se ubicaron por georreferencia. Se realizó una regresión multivariante y un análisis espacial, y se empleó la reactividad serológica anti-PGL-I como variable dependiente. Resultados. Se estudiaron 1 491 personas: 1 009 (67,7%) familiares y vecinos de escolares con resultados positivos en las pruebas serológicas y 482 (32,3%) vecinos de las personas con casos de lepra. Del total, 421 (28,2%) presentaron seropositividad anti-PGL-I. La posibilidad de presentar seropositividad fue mayor en los familiares y vecinos de los escolares seropositivos (P < 0,001), en las personas con ingresos familiares de un salario mínimo (P < 0,001), en las personas más jóvenes (P < 0,001) y en los residentes en domicilios con una a cinco habitaciones (P = 0,007). La tasa de seropositividad fue mayor en la zona geográfica correspondiente a los escolares seropositivos (P < 0,001), por lo que hubo divergencia entre el foco de mayor concentración de casos y el de mayor seropositividad. Conclusiones. El uso conjunto de los marcadores serológicos y del análisis espacial permitió determinar las fragilidades operativas de los servicios y una posible endemia oculta de lepra en los sectores urbanos del municipio incluidos en el censo correspondiente. Las actividades de rastreo de contactos sociales y cercanos, la búsqueda activa de casos, las campañas educativas, las encuestas escolares y el análisis del territorio facilitan el diagnóstico temprano de la lepra.

The state of the leprosy epidemic in Yunnan, China 2011-2020: A spatial and spatiotemporal analysis, highlighting areas for intervention.

BACKGROUND: Despite public health efforts to reduce the leprosy burden in Yunnan, China, leprosy remains an important public health problem in some specific areas. We analyzed the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of leprosy in Yunnan, China, and provide data to guide disease prevention and control efforts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The surveillance data of newly detected leprosy cases in Yunnan, China, during 2011-2020 were extracted from the LEPROSY MANAGEMANT INFORMATION SYSTEM IN CHINA (LEPMIS), and spatial distribution analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatiotemporal scanning were performed with ArcGIS 10.6.1, GeoDa 1.8.8, and SaTScan 9.4.3 software, respectively. A total of 1907 newly detected leprosy cases were reported in Yunnan, China, during 2011-2020. The new case detection rate (NCDR) decreased from 0.62 in 2011 to 0.25 in 2020, with an annual incidence of 0.41/100,000 population. The proportions of multibacillary (MB) cases, cases in female patients, cases causing grade 2 physical disability (G2D), and cases in pediatric patients were 67.07%, 33.93%, 17.99%, and 2.83%, respectively. The number of counties with an incidence above 1/100,000 population decreased from 30 in 2011 to 8 in 2020. The Moran's I of leprosy in Yunnan, China, during 2011-2020 ranged from 0.076 to 0.260, indicating the presence of spatial clusters. Local spatial autocorrelation (LSA) analysis showed that high-high cluster areas (hot spots) were mainly distributed in the southeastern, northern, and northwestern regions. Spatiotemporal scanning showed three clusters with high NCDRs. The probably primary clusters, occurring during January 1, 2011-December 31, 2015, covered 11 counties in the southeastern region (RR = 5.046515, LRR = 271.749664, P = 0.000). CONCLUSION: The number of leprosy cases in Yunnan decreased overall, although some high-NCDR regions remained. Geographic information system (GIS) analysis coupled with spatial analysis indicated regions with leprosy clusters. Continuous leprosy prevention and control strategies in Yunnan Province should be established, and interventions in high-risk regions should be prioritized and further strengthened.

Exploring clustering of leprosy in the Comoros and Madagascar: A geospatial analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To identify patterns of spatial clustering of leprosy. DESIGN: We performed a baseline survey for a trial on post-exposure prophylaxis for leprosy in Comoros and Madagascar. We screened 64 villages, door-to-door, and recorded results of screening, demographic data and geographic coordinates. To identify clusters, we fitted a purely spatial Poisson model using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. We used a regular Poisson model to assess the risk of contracting leprosy at the individual level as a function of distance to the nearest known leprosy patient. RESULTS: We identified 455 leprosy patients; 200 (44.0%) belonged to 2735 households included in a cluster. Thirty-eight percent of leprosy patients versus 10% of the total population live ≤25 m from another leprosy patient. Risk ratios for being diagnosed with leprosy were 7.3, 2.4, 1.8, 1.4 and 1.7, for those at the same household, at 1-<25 m, 25-<50 m, 50-<75 m and 75-<100 m as/from a leprosy patient, respectively, compared to those living at ≥100 m. CONCLUSIONS: We documented significant clustering of leprosy beyond household level, although 56% of cases were not part of a cluster. Control measures need to be extended beyond the household, and social networks should be further explored.

Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of leprosy: A new challenge for leprosy prevention and control in Zhejiang, China.

BACKGROUND: After the elimination of leprosy in 1995, there were 10-30 newly detected leprosy cases every year in Zhejiang Province, and the epidemiological characteristics of the newly detected leprosy cases have changed. While most of the newly detected cases came from other provinces in China, not Zhejiang, it brought a new challenge for leprosy prevention and control in post- elimination era in Zhejiang, China. This study was aimed to understand the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of newly detected leprosy cases, and provide the scientific rationales for the development of leprosy control strategy. METHODS: Data on the demographic of Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2019 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and the epidemiological data on leprosy cases newly detected in Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2019 were obtained from the LEPROSY MANAGEMANT INFORMATION SYSTEM IN CHINA (LEPMIS), and temporal-spatial distributions were described. The geographic information system software-ArcGIS 10.4 was used to draw the statistical maps, and Geoda 1.14.0 was used for local spatial autocorrelation analysis (local Getis coefficient method). Ridley-Jopling classification was used to classify the clinical types into I, TT, BT, BB, BL or LL. Two-group classification system developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) was used and cases were classified into multibacillary (MB) type or paucibacillary (PB) type. RESULTS: A total of 167 leprosy cases were reported in Zhejiang Province during 2011-2019, including 107 cases in males and 60 in females. The mean age at diagnosis was 37.99±14.81 years, and 94.01% of the cases were detected through the examination at skin-clinics. The number of workers, MB cases, G2D cases were 81 (48.50%), 159 (94.01%), 24 (14.37%) respectively, and the rate of early detection increased from 45.16% in 2011 to 90.91% in 2019. Leprosy cases were reported in all the prefectures of Zhejiang except Zhoushan City. The cases in local population accounted for 23.35% (39 cases), and the cases in floating population (especially coming from high epidemic provinces in China) accounted for 76.65% (128 cases). The annual number of newly detected cases showed a decreasing trend, from 31 cases in 2011 to 11 in 2019. Time of the floating population living in Zhejiang Province ranged from several months to more than 10 years. The annual proportion of new cases with G2D declined from 22.58% in 2011 to 9.09% in 2019. The results of local indicators of autocorrelation (LISA) analysis showed that the high-high areas were mainly concentrated in the middle and northeast of Zhejiang Province, while the low-low areas were in the east and southwest. CONCLUSION: A few scattered cases still can be seen in post-elimination era, and there was a spatial clustering of the newly detected leprosy cases in Zhejiang Province. Most of the cases in Zhejiang Province were from other high epidemic provinces in China, which brought a new challenge for leprosy control and prevention in post- elimination era in Zhejiang, and it is also necessary to strengthen the early detection and standard management of the leprosy cases in floating population in Zhejiang.